Belmont Stakes prospect preps in turf race

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/20/2010 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Madrid, a Belmont Stakes candidate, faded down the stretch Thursday at Belmont Park in his first race in more than a month. The three-year-old colt was using the optional claiming event as a prep for the final leg in the Triple Crown.

Trained by Tim Ice, New Madrid and jockey John Velazquez took the lead coming out of the gate in the 1 1/8-mile turf contest. The colt ws making his first start since finishing sixth to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby. This was just his fifth career start.

New Madrid, owned by Shortleaf Stable, set the pace up the backstretch with Syo Defenceman to the inside in second. Spanish Art, the 2-1 favorite, was racing off the pace in sixth while 3-1 second choice Elusive Beat was running last.

Around the turn for home Kindergarden Kid made a sweeping move and took the lead heading into the stretch. New Madrid, 6-1 on the tote board, and Syo Defenceman both faded down the stretch.

Kindergarden Kid, ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, held off a late running Cherokee Speed to win the grass race by three-quarters of a length. Spanish Art finished third followed by Elusive Beat, New Madrid, Wild Entry and Syo Defenceman.

Sent off at 7-1, Kindergarden Kid covered the 1 1/8-miles in 1:49.74 on a firm turf course.

In other Belmont Stakes news, Stay Put had his final Churchill Downs work in preparation for the 1 1/2-mile Test of Champions on Saturday, June 5. The chestnut colt worked six furlongs in 1:14 with jockey Jamie Theriot. The three-year-old is owned by Bertram, Richard and Elaine Klein, and trained by Steve Margolis.

"It was very good. Jamie said he finished well and I got him galloping out in 1:28 and a mile in 1:42," Margolis said. "He will ship to Belmont next Thursday, train Friday and then work a half-mile Saturday or Sunday. We always thought he had talent. Jamie says he never seems to get tired and his Derby Day race was impressive in the way he did it."

Stay Put won an allowance race at Churchill Downs that began the May 1 program. The colt was fifth in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds.

Preakness runner-up First Dude, trained by Dale Romans, is scheduled to leave Louisville on Friday for a possible start in the Belmont Stakes. Owned by Donald Dizney, First Dude was 23-1 in the Preakness after finishing fifth in the Florida Derby to Ice Box and third to Stately Victor in the Blue Grass Stakes.

A pair of Belmont Stakes probables have been withdrawn from consideration. Dublin and Setsuko will not be entered in the race.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Dublin was seventh in the Kentucky Derby and fifth in the Preakness. His defection means that no horse will have started in all three Triple Crown races this year.

Setsuko, Santa Anita Derby runner-up, has inflammation in his ankles and will remain in California. Trained by Richard Mandella, the colt was second in the Sham Stakes in March, but did not have enough graded stakes earnings to enter the Kentucky Derby. On April 30 he was fourth in the American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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