Canadian MLB players primed for impact year

Baseball Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As the boys of summer prepare for the upcoming MLB season, the ones north of the border are sure to get some extra attention.

Tracking some of Canada's top players for the MLB 2010 season:

HITTERS

JUSTIN MORNEAU, MINNESOTA TWINS

2009: .274 AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 85 R, .878 OPS

2010 Outlook: The 2006 AL MVP suffered a stress fracture in his back late in the '09 season that forced the first baseman to miss the team's final 21 games. Despite playing in his fewest games since 2004, the three-time All-Star topped 30-100 for the third time in four years. With a healthy Twins lineup, featuring newly-acquired Orlando Hudson and MLB batting champ Joe Mauer, Morneau is poised for another MVP-type season.

Stat fact: Morneau has the fourth-highest RBI total in baseball since 2006.

JASON BAY, NEW YORK METS

2009: .267 AVG, 36 HR, 119 RBI, 103 R, .921 OPS

2010 Outlook: Bay returns to the NL after posting career-highs in HR and RBI in his first full season as a member of the Boston Red Sox. The three-time All- Star signed an $80 million contract to take his act to the Big Apple, where the outfielder should add solid production and durability to a talented yet injury-plagued ballclub. Although Bay's home run total is likely to take a hit in the spacious Citi Field, his peripheral numbers should stay similar to years' past given the potential of the Mets lineup.

Stat fact: Bay's 2009 RBI and HR totals ranked second and third respectively in the AL.

JOEY VOTTO, CINCINNATI REDS

2009: .322 AVG, 25 HR, 84 RBI, .414 OBP, .567 SLG, .981 OPS

2010 Outlook: An inner-ear infection and subsequent battle with depression poured cold water on the banner year the Reds first baseman was putting together. The 26-year-old was hitting .370 through early May before the infection gave way to headaches and dizziness. Votto ended up missing 31 games but still managed to lead the Reds in several offensive categories and finished among the NL top five in batting, slugging and on-base percentage. Healthy and looking to put his past behind him, Votto should continue to solidify himself among the elite hitters in the game.

Stat fact: Votto hit .300 or higher in six consecutive months from August '08 to July '09, including hitting .374 last September.

PITCHERS

ERIK BEDARD, SEATTLE MARINERS

2009: 5-3, 2.82 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 90 SO, 83 IP

2010 Outlook: The six-foot-one, 200-pound southpaw is coming off shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the first couple months of the season. However, the Mariners signed the injury-prone 31-year-old to a low-risk, high-reward one-year deal worth $1.5 million plus incentives, given his age and high strikeout-to-walk ratio when healthy. If he can stay on the mound, Bedard could provide exceptional depth in the middle of a rotation headlined by Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee.

Stat fact: Erik Bedard's 10.93 strikeouts per nine innings in 2007 stands as the highest K/9 ratio in the MLB since Oliver Perez in 2004.

RYAN DEMPSTER, CHICAGO CUBS

2009: 11-9, 3.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 172 SO, 200 IP

2010 Outlook: The starter-turned-closer-back-to-starter had another solid season in '09, pitching 200 innings for the second-straight year, although he failed to duplicate an impressive '08 campaign (17-6, 2.96 ERA). Regardless, the 32-year-old right hander should continue to turn out quality starts as the No. 3 pitcher for the Cubs.

Stat fact: Since the beginning of 2008, Dempster ranks in the NL top 10 in wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, and strikeouts.

RICH HARDEN, TEXAS RANGERS

2009: 9-9, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 SO, 141 IP

2010 Outlook: Similar to Bedard, the 28-year-old right-hander has been somewhat of an enigma, among the most talented arms in the game when he's not on the disabled list. After spending a little more than a year in Chicago, the Victoria, B.C.-native signed with the Rangers in the hopes of returning to his dominant form. Although Harden gave up a career-high 23 home runs in '09, his 26 starts were the most he's made in a season since 2004 with Oakland.

Stat fact: Injuries have prevented Harden from qualifying for most categories, but his 9.35 K/9 since 2003 would rank him seventh in all of baseball.

LOOKING TO BOUNCE BACK

LHP JEFF FRANCIS, COLORADO ROCKIES

The six-foot-five lanky southpaw is looking to put the past two seasons behind him.

After helping guide the Rockies to the World Series with a 17-9 record over 215 innings in '07, Francis went 4-10 with an ERA over five in '08 and missed all of 2009 following shoulder surgery.

A healthy Francis will look to regain the old form that saw him go 44-32 over three seasons (2005-2007).

C RUSSELL MARTIN, LOS ANGELES DODGERS

By all accounts, Martin's 2009 season was a disappointment. Unable to build on three productive years in Dodger blue, the 27-year-old put up career-lows across the board (.250 AVG, 7 HR, 53 RBI).

The two-time All-Star arrived in 2010 training camp claiming to have put on 25 pounds of muscle over the offseason, determined to reclaim his status as one of the top young catchers in the game.

However, Martin pulled his groin early in camp and will miss four-to-six weeks, including the beginning of the regular season. When healthy, Martin is a multi- tool catcher, providing power, speed and durability at a position where a combination of those skills is rare.

AROUND THE BASES

3B Mark Teahen, CWS: Former utility man for the Royals, Teahen is penciled in as the starting third baseman for the White Sox this coming season. The 28- year-old had 12 HR, 50 RBI, and 34 2B in 144 games for Kansas City last year.

RF Matt Stairs, SD: At 42, Stairs will assume the role as the power-hitting pinch-hitter off San Diego's bench. After considering retirement, Stairs reportedly checked into training camp 32 pounds lighter than he was at the end of the '09 season. The left-handed slugger ranks second all-time behind Larry Walker for home runs by a Canadian MLB player with 259.

TOP PROSPECTS

Baseball America recently named three Canadians in their annual Top 100 Prospects list, led by Michael Saunders (ranked 30th) of the Seattle Mariners. The 23-year-old outfielder hit .221 in 122 AB last year with the Mariners and could find his way back up to the big club should injuries strike.

Brett Lawrie (59th) became the earliest Canadian position player ever selected in the MLB draft when the Milwaukee Brewers took him 16th overall in 2008. The 20-year-old second baseman hit .274 with 13 HR and 65 RBI in 118 games split between the Brewers' Class-A and Double-A affiliates. Lawrie is expected to spend the '10 season in the minor leagues.

Phillippe Aumont (93rd) was a key component of the three-way deal involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. The 21-year-old six-foot-seven right hander will start the season in Double-A for the Philadelphia Phillies, and has an outside chance at making a late-season appearance on the big league roster.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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