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06/28/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This past Friday in Los Angeles, 30 general managers and their scouts got together for the NHL Entry Draft.
It was a head-scratching draft for those watching, and a hand-sitting affair for many involved.
The following is a Canadian roundup of the winners and losers of draft day.
EDMONTON OILERS
With the first overall pick, the Edmonton Oilers select ... a franchise player. And for those living under a rock this past year, his name is Taylor Hall.
While there was a lot of hype surrounding the battle between Taylor and Tyler [Seguin], the Oilers opted to go for the most accomplished and NHL-ready of the top two.
It was the first time the Oilers had the luxury of picking first overall, and they used the selection on a player with major offensive upside, plenty of grit and Alberta roots...how can you go wrong?
Barring any unforeseen catastrophes, Hall will be lacing up in Oil Country come the start of next season.
In total, the Oilers finished draft weekend in Los Angeles with 11 total picks, including highly-touted forwards Tyler Pitlick (2nd round) and Ryan Martindale (3rd round). NHL Central Scouting ranked them 18th and 27th respectively, among North American skaters.
Synopsis: Big-time winner; Oilers fans should be excited.
Draft list: Taylor Hall (1), Tyler Pitlick (31), Martin Marincin (46), Curtis Hamilton (48), Ryan Martindale (61), Jeremie Blain (91), Tyler Bunz (121), Brandon Davidson (162), Drew Czerwonka (166), Kristians Pelss (181), Kellen Jones (202).
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Phil Kessel is good, but it still must have hurt to see the Boston Bruins entourage slowly saunter to the stage to announce the second overall pick.
The pick, of course, ended up being Plymouth Whalers center and Ontario Hockey League MVP Tyler Seguin.
And to make matters worse, Brian Burke didn't put his scouts to work until Saturday, having reportedly turned down a first-round pick in an undisclosed deal on Friday.
After swinging a trade that sent prospect Jimmy Hayes to the Chicago Blackhawks for a second-round pick, the Leafs gobbled up Portland Winterhawks sparkplug Bradley Ross.
Ross is compared to former Leaf Darcy Tucker based on his chippy style of play and timely goal scoring, having put up 27 goals and 68 points playing on a line with first-round draft picks Nino Niederreiter and Ryan Johansen.
Synopsis: Good recovery; plenty of truculence.
Draft list: Bradley Ross (43), Greg McKegg (62), Sondre Olden (79), Petter Granberg (116), Sam Carrick (144), Daniel Brodin (146), Josh Nicholls (182).
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
After trading their first-round selection to the Florida Panthers in a deal centered around defenseman Keith Ballard, the Canucks had to sit tight until the fourth round to make their first pick.
With it they selected Patrick McNally, a 6'2" offensive defenseman out of Milton Academy high school in Massachusetts.
McNally was the 40th-ranked skater by Central Scouting and is said to possess great poise with the puck and the ability to use his skating ability to jump into the rush, a factor highlighted by his 14 goals and 35 points in only 28 games.
He has committed to Harvard next year so it should be a while before he becomes a household name in Vancouver.
Synopsis: Not bad, considering limited picks.
Draft list: Patrick McNally (115), Adam Polasek (145), Alex Friesen (172), Jonathan Ilahti (175), Sawyer Hannay (205).
MONTREAL CANADIENS
Although they only had five picks in total, the Canadiens made some shrewd decisions throughout the draft.
For starters, trading up to land American defenseman Jarred Tinordi with the 22nd pick was a great move by GM Pierre Gauthier.
Tinordi is a strapping shut-down blueliner with a cannon from the point. He also captained the U.S. National Development Program in 2009-10 and has hockey bloodlines (his father is longtime NHL defenseman Mark Tinordi).
While the younger Tinordi is committed to the University of Notre Dame for next season, there is speculation he could opt to hone his craft playing for the London Knights in the OHL.
Another interesting name to keep an eye on is Vancouver Giants forward Brendan Gallagher. Although he is on the small side (only 5'9", 163 lbs), he put up 41 goals and 111 PIM's as a 17 year-old.
Synopsis: Outside of Tinordi, not too much to get excited about.
Draft List: Jarred Tinordi (22), Mark MacMillan (113), Morgan Ellis (117), Brendan Gallagher (147), John Westin (207).
CALGARY FLAMES
The Flames came into Los Angeles with a dire need to replenish the prospect cupboard, despite not drafting until the third round.
With his first pick, GM Darryl Sutter took Maxwell Reinhart of the Kootenay Ice. Despite passing up some flashy names, Reinhart brings an all-around game and is the son of former Flame Paul Reinhart.
It should also be noted that Reinhart jumped from 157th to 79th between Central Scouting's midterm and final rankings for North American skaters.
Sutter stuck to the bloodlines in the next round as well, drafting physical defender John Ramage out of the University of Wisconsin. John is the son of former NHLer Rob Ramage.
Synopsis: Made the best of a bad situation.
Draft List: Maxwell Reinhart (64), Joey Leach (73), John Ramage (103), Bill Arnold (108), Michael Ferland (133), Patrick Holland (193).
OTTAWA SENATORS
Having found themselves in a favorable position in the first round (16th), the Senators opted instead to trade that pick to the St. Louis Blues for Swedish defenseman David Rundblad.
Rundblad was a first-rounder in 2009 (17th), with the potential to become a solid offensive puck mover. And despite the hype lost in trading a first round pick, the Sens must have felt he fit their needs better than any player left at 16.
The Sens didn't pick until the third round and ultimately settled with Czech winger Jakub Culek. Culek currently plays for Rimouski in the QMJHL and brings good size with great hands to complement his offensive vision.
Synopsis: Not a lot of action, not a lot of hype.
Draft List: Jakub Culek (76), Markus Sorensen (106), Mark Stone (178), Bryce Aneloski (196).
<< Venus moves on, Jankovic retires in fourth-round match at Wimbledon
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Five-time champion Venus Williams
advanced to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon with a straight-set victory over
Australian Jarmila Groth, while Serbia's Jelena Jankovic retired from her
fourth-
<< Jankovic retires in fourth-round match at Wimbledon
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Serbia's Jelena Jankovic retired from
her fourth-round match against Vera Zvonareva at Wimbledon due to a back
injury.
The fourth seed took a spill early in the match and received treatment on
<< Red Sox C Martinez breaks thumb
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston Red Sox catcher Victor Martinez
suffered a broken left thumb in Sunday's 5-1 win over the San Francisco
Giants.
Martinez left the game in the fourth inning after being hit by several f
<< Cano caps Yankees rally in rubber match win over Dodgers
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Robinson Cano hit a go-ahead two-run homer
in the 10th inning after the Yankees rallied to tie the game off Jonathan
Broxton, lifting New York to an 8-6 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in
the rub
Braves get first look at Strasburg >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nationals drafted Stephen Strasburg with the hopes that
he could one day headline a rotation that would make Washington a contender in
the National League East.
The 21-year-old phenom gets his first crack at division p
Phils try to stay hot in opener with Reds >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As the weather is getting warmer, so are the Phillies'
bats.
Given their past success against Reds starter Johnny Cueto, that isn't likely
to change this evening when Philadelphia begins a three-game set versus
Cincinnati
Mets, Marlins square off in Puerto Rico >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Though the Marlins are being designated as the home team
for this three-game series in San Juan, Puerto Rico, it is the Mets who have a
number of players that are set to take the field in their native country.
As Major Lea
Jays, Tribe commence four-game set in Cleveland >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ricky Romero will try to get the Toronto Blue Jays back on
track this evening when they open a four-game set with the Cleveland Indians
at Progressive Field.
The Jays, who with 40 wins are one of the biggest surprises i
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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